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Chart of the Day: Forecasting is Easy, Getting it Right is Hard

Samuel A. Kiburz Jan 25, 2024
10-year treasury yield going back to 2000, dotted, brown line is the forecast of rates

Contents

Today’s Chart of the Day has been around a while and is often in the back of my head when we see “forecasts.” In this case, the blue line is the 10-year treasury yield going back to 2000 and at that time, in the dotted, brown line, what the professional forecasts of rates were going to be for the next year or so. As you can see, they were more often wrong than right.

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