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Chart of the Day: Not Since 1788

Samuel A. Kiburz Nov 9, 2023
history of bonds and treasury interest rate


Today’s Chart of the Day from Bank of America shows that the increase in the 10-year treasury interest rates in 2022 caused the worst price decline since 1788.Normally, price declines can be somewhat offset by the yearly interest payments, but in this case, the interest payments were so low, that they are providing little to no support. This phenomenon is called having a high convexity which is plaguing bonds that were issued when the rates were at historic lows. The chart title shows that we have never, in the history of the U.S., seen bonds decline for three years in a row, and there is a better than average chance they will not, but past performance is no guarantee of future returns. 

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