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Chart of the Day: Odds of Gains

Samuel A. Kiburz, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer Jun 26, 2025
Blue bar chart showing the odds of gains in the stock market over various time frames.

Contents

Today’s Chart of the Day is from Ritholtz Wealth Management and shows the odds of having a gain while holding stocks represented by the S&P 500.
I often reflect on the one-day odds: there’s a 51% chance the market will go up. As expected, the odds increase over time: 62% over one month, 74% over one year, 93% over 10 years, and 100% over 20 years. (These statistics are widely known in the financial industry.) However, it’s the one-day statistic that sticks in my mind, simply because it is positive. If it were 50%, or only 49%, statistics show that long-term returns would be flat to negative, as the results compound and you proverbially flip the coin over and over.

The lesson? Don’t wait. Don’t try to time the market. Don’t bet it will go down. In the long run, the market soldiers forward.
Chart of the Day

About the Author

Samuel A. Kiburz, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Samuel A. Kiburz, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

Samuel serves as Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer for the Crews family of banks. He manages the individual investment holdings of his clients, including individuals, families, foundations, and institutions throughout the State of Florida. Samuel has been involved in banking since 1996 and has more than 20 years experience working in wealth management.

Investments are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the bank, are not FDIC insured, not insured by any federal government agency, and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal.

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