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Chart of the Day: Mortgage Rates are Back to Normal

Peaks and valleys mortgage rates shown with blue line

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Today’s Chart of the Day from re:venture shows the difference between mortgage rates and inflation going back to 1955.Economists make the case that the difference is the "true” cost of a loan to the borrower. A 5% mortgage rate at 5% inflation is less costly than a 5% mortgage with only a 1% inflation rate. The lowest was in 2022 with a -4.4% difference while the highest was in 1985 at +11.4%.

Going back 70 years, the historic average is 4%, which is where we are at today. The iron rule of investing is that everything wants to return to the mean, meaning that there is no “pull” to reduce rates to the levels we enjoyed during the last 15 years after the Great Recession.