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Chart of the Day: Day or Night Trading

Overnight versus intraday returns for the S&P 500.

Contents

The topic of Today’s Chart of the Day is something that often crosses my mind in the morning when I look at how the market is going to open. The chart is from a research paper called “Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of all Market Anomalies?” published in the Journal of Investment Management in 2024. 
 
In a nutshell, the chart, dated from 1991 to 2024, shows 2 separate $1-investment strategy examples: the first is only owning the S&P 500 shares when the market is closed (so buy at the close and sell at the open) vs. only owning the shares when the S&P 500 is open (so buying at the open and selling at the close).
 
The difference is startling.  The return for when the market is closed is $17 and only $1 when it is open. This shows us that nearly all of the returns happen at night while the market is closed, and almost zero returns during the day when it is open. 
 
Why is this? Well, normally, most market information is released right before or after the market is closed, and since most of the time the information is positive, this is when prices adjust upward.