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Chart of the Day: Possibility of Loss

Samuel A. Kiburz, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer Oct 30, 2025
Bar graph illustrating the probability of negative stock returns based on the S&P 500 total returns from 1929 to present, in various lengths of time from one-day to ten years.

Contents

Today’s Chart of the Day is from Brian Feroldi from Bank of America Global Research, showing a chart from 1929 that shows as time horizons grow, the possibility of equity losses historically fall off. 
 
For any given one-day span, there is a 46% chance that the S&P 500 (the 500 largest stocks in the United States) will have a negative return. However, the probability of negative returns falls to 25% for one year, 10% in five years, and 6% in 10 years. 
 
This is a juxtaposition with my June 26, 2025, Chart of the Day called “Odds of Gains,” with one striking difference—that chart went further to show there was a ZERO chance of loss over a 20-year span.  
 
It just goes to show that when it comes to investing, patience really does pay off.
Chart of the Day

About the Author

Samuel A. Kiburz, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Samuel A. Kiburz, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

Samuel serves as Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer for the Crews family of banks. He manages the individual investment holdings of his clients, including individuals, families, foundations, and institutions throughout the State of Florida. Samuel has been involved in banking since 1996 and has more than 20 years experience working in wealth management.

Investments are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the bank, are not FDIC insured, not insured by any federal government agency, and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal.

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