It’s hard to do commentary when in the morning, the markets are down, and by lunch they are level, and by the close they might be up, and vice versa.
As with all things, patience is the name of the game in the long run. Below are three notes about today.
After declining in September, the equity market is now celebrating the economic recovery from the COVID virus and solid growth in U.S. corporate earnings. The S&P 500 Index is now up 22% for the year and is poised to move higher as economic growth is only hindered by distribution bottlenecks in imported and manufactured goods. The goods inventory scarcity is likely to be temporary, and it should take four to six months to normalize the distribution from ships to ports, trucks, trains and stores. The decline in inventories has caused price hikes in goods and services, yet consumers have registered higher confidence levels, are consuming and traveling more, and are returning to work. Job availability remains high, yet some Americans are choosing retirement, self-employment or part-time work rather than a return to the office.
The better-than-expected third-quarter corporate earnings reports were evidence of a broad-based economic recovery causing investor psychology to improve and funds to flow from bonds into stocks. This has since reversed as the uncertainty of the spread and severity of COVID mutation Omicron remains unknown. The concern is that the supply chain of parts and goods produced in emerging markets may slow and deter global economic growth.
After declining in September, the equity market is now celebrating the economic recovery from the COVID virus and solid growth in U.S. corporate earnings. The S&P 500 Index is now up 22% for the year and is poised to move higher as economic growth is only hindered by distribution bottlenecks in imported and manufactured goods.
The S&P 500 Index is consolidating as Washington policymakers postpone important decisions on the budget ceiling and the infrastructure bills. The S&P 500 Index has grown this year as earnings and growth have supported valuations, but now, as fiscal and monetary policies change, we are seeing investor concerns. With fiscal policy, there are many supportive benefits of spending $500 billion on actual bridge and road infrastructure. However, the massive $3.5-trillion “human” infrastructure package is concerning due to higher taxes and escalating inflation. This plan is likely to be debated and downsized before passage – if at all.
The S&P 500 Index is consolidating as Washington policymakers postpone important decisions on the budget ceiling and the infrastructure bills. The S&P 500 Index has grown this year as earnings and growth have supported valuations, but now, as fiscal and monetary policies change, we are seeing investor concerns.
The S&P 500 Index is consolidating as Washington policymakers postpone important decisions on the budget ceiling and the infrastructure bills. The S&P 500 Index has grown this year as earnings and growth have supported valuations, but now, as fiscal and monetary policies change, we are seeing investor concerns. With fiscal policy, there are many supportive benefits of spending $500 billion on actual bridge and road infrastructure. However, the massive $3.5-trillion “human” infrastructure package is concerning due to higher taxes and escalating inflation. This plan is likely to be debated and downsized before passage – if at all.
Economic indicators are proving that consumers and businesses are fueling the economy with pent-up demand on spending. Consumers are reacting to the vaccinations with robust spending on vacations, furniture, automobiles and homes, while businesses are trying to ramp up production and services to meet the need.
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