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Economic Recovery Is Underway

With the completion of the fourth quarter of 2020 corporate earnings releases, investors are monitoring daily COVID headlines, rising interest rates,..

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Man and woman looking at paperwork

Initial Market in President Biden's First Days

The S&P 500 Index was down 1% in January based on investors’ revised expectations of corporate revenue growth and earnings. First, the COVID-19..

Read More

Angled screen representing stock numbers

Investment Market Update: Positive Takeaways From 2020

2020 was an unusual and volatile one with the S&P 500 Index’s 34% decline in 30 days in March followed by a retracement and rise of over 16% by..

Read More

Stock market screen with multiple lines

Investment Market Update, Q3 2020

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq index had wonderful performance during the third quarter, with returns of 8.5% and 11%, respectively. However, pre-election..

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Market showing resiliency in some sectors

Despite the concerns about strained relations with China, increased COVID infections, social protests, weaker earnings, high U.S. unemployment and..

Read More

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Growth Poised to Follow Re-opening of the Economy

Investors reconsidered the emotionally-oversold market in the month of April and bravely pushed the market higher by 12.7% even before news about the..

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Investment Market Update,  Q1 2020

I wanted to write a note to you about the tremendous first quarter market volatility and the 20% S&P 500 Index decline. This “waterfall” decline was..

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COVID-19: Investment Update

The equity and fixed income markets are experiencing unprecedented volatility and fear about the coronavirus. This is a health crisis that has..

Read More

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Economic Normalization on the Horizon

During the month of November, the S&P 500 Index jumped 11% on the expectation of improving economic conditions next year. The index is signaling that..

Read More

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4th Quarter 2019 Investment Update

Supported by stable interest rates and optimism regarding the China trade negotiations, the S&P 500 Index rose 28.9% and the Nasdaq Index, with its..

Read More

arms in a blazer working at a desk with paperwork, a laptop, and coffee

3rd Quarter 2019 Investment Update

The S&P 500 Index has climbed 1.2% during the third quarter as optimism about a China trade deal and the increased probability of a more..

Read More

Arms in a blazer working at a desk with a laptop, coffee, and paperwork

4th Quarter Investment Update

The volatile equity markets continued dramatic price swings while bond yields moved lower in the fourth quarter. The potential for a trade war with..

Read More

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Economic Recovery Is Underway

With the completion of the fourth quarter of 2020 corporate earnings releases, investors are monitoring daily COVID headlines, rising interest rates, and the potential for a new stimulus program. Corporate earnings were mostly better than expected and guidance for the year ahead was surprisingly strong.

More

Initial Market in President Biden's First Days

The S&P 500 Index was down 1% in January based on investors’ revised expectations of corporate revenue growth and earnings. First, the COVID-19 vaccine distribution and inoculation process is proceeding slowly while the virus is mutating. The new strains appear to be slightly more virulent and the vaccination timeline will take longer and delay economic normalization.

More

Investment Market Update: Positive Takeaways From 2020

2020 was an unusual and volatile one with the S&P 500 Index’s 34% decline in 30 days in March followed by a retracement and rise of over 16% by year-end. This proved once again that a longer-term outlook is required in successful equity investing.

More

Investment Market Update, Q3 2020

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq index had wonderful performance during the third quarter, with returns of 8.5% and 11%, respectively. However, pre-election politics obstructing a new federal stimulus package and an escalation in COVID cases caused both indexes to decline in September.

More

Market showing resiliency in some sectors

Despite the concerns about strained relations with China, increased COVID infections, social protests, weaker earnings, high U.S. unemployment and the November election, the S&P 500 Index is up 1% for the year while the Nasdaq Index is up 19.7%. The increasing spread of the virus is suppressing a healthy economic recovery as consumers and businesses remain conservative in their spending.

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Growth Poised to Follow Re-opening of the Economy

Investors reconsidered the emotionally-oversold market in the month of April and bravely pushed the market higher by 12.7% even before news about the virus infection curve flattening. Since the “shelter-at-home” policies have reduced the infection rate, government policymakers are announcing dates for re-opening the economy.

More

Investment Market Update,  Q1 2020

I wanted to write a note to you about the tremendous first quarter market volatility and the 20% S&P 500 Index decline. This “waterfall” decline was the worst since the 2008 Great Recession and was particularly unusual since the market was trading at an all-time high on Feb. 19. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented event elevating fear and uncertainty, but it is a transitory event for the markets and the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, we hope you please practice social distancing and stay safe.  

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COVID-19: Investment Update

The equity and fixed income markets are experiencing unprecedented volatility and fear about the coronavirus. This is a health crisis that has evolved into a financial challenge for policy makers as they attempt to suppress the spread of the virus while not closing down the economy entirely. Unfortunately, the only way to deter the spread of the virus is to reduce or close transportation and impose a quarantine. Since the only way we know to limit the number of infections is to reduce social interaction, we expect more states will join California, Illinois and New York in a “lock down.” For a historical comparison in 2009-2010 the H1N1 “Swine-Flu” virus infected 60 million Americans and killed 12,500, and yet the panic was not as prevalent. 

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Economic Normalization on the Horizon

During the month of November, the S&P 500 Index jumped 11% on the expectation of improving economic conditions next year. The index is signaling that the U.S. will reach economic normalization in 2021 due to the development of several COVID vaccines, a likely deferment of further trade wars, a potential stimulus package, and a divided government.

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4th Quarter 2019 Investment Update

Supported by stable interest rates and optimism regarding the China trade negotiations, the S&P 500 Index rose 28.9% and the Nasdaq Index, with its high information technology weighting, rose 33% for the year. Enthusiasm and expectations for a better economy and strengthening earnings grew as the year progressed. Current equity market valuations look historically elevated with an overall 18x expected Price-to-Earnings ratio, but with few attractive investment alternatives, the financial market gains can continue. There is still over $1 trillion in private equity and hedge fund cash ready to be invested, so even a minor correction would be met with supportive technical buying. The rally was concentrated in the Large Cap technology growth stocks with Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks generally up less significantly. Value stocks like financials, consumer staples, energy and utilities – which are not expected to have significant earnings growth – underperformed during the year.

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3rd Quarter 2019 Investment Update

The S&P 500 Index has climbed 1.2% during the third quarter as optimism about a China trade deal and the increased probability of a more accommodative Federal Reserve has investors convinced that the economic expansion will continue. The second-quarter earnings reports were generally better than anticipated with 2-4% growth year over year, so overall valuations look reasonable.

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4th Quarter Investment Update

The volatile equity markets continued dramatic price swings while bond yields moved lower in the fourth quarter. The potential for a trade war with China and higher interest rates has investors concerned that economic growth will be constricted. With U.S. annual inflation dormant at 2.2%, reduced home sales for the past nine months, decelerating automobile sales, declining commodity prices and slowing GDP growth, the concern is the Federal Reserve has already raised rates too quickly.

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