May 2022 Market Update

Below are a couple of my thoughts on the market. 

More

The Market Response after Eight Days of Conflict

It’s hard to do commentary when in the morning, the markets are down, and by lunch they are level, and by the close they might be up, and vice versa.

More

Today's Market Notes - Russian Edition

As with all things, patience is the name of the game in the long run. Below are three notes about today.

More

October Investment Update

After declining in September, the equity market is now celebrating the economic recovery from the COVID virus and solid growth in U.S. corporate earnings. The S&P 500 Index is now up 22% for the year and is poised to move higher as economic growth is only hindered by distribution bottlenecks in imported and manufactured goods. The goods inventory scarcity is likely to be temporary, and it should take four to six months to normalize the distribution from ships to ports, trucks, trains and stores. The decline in inventories has caused price hikes in goods and services, yet consumers have registered higher confidence levels, are consuming and traveling more, and are returning to work. Job availability remains high, yet some Americans are choosing retirement, self-employment or part-time work rather than a return to the office.

More

2021 Year-End Market Review

The equity markets ended the year with strong performance despite the uncertainty about the new variant of COVID and the Federal Reserve’s announcement about tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates. Omicron is spreading quickly, but the mutation seems less severe and has a significantly lower mortality rate. As viruses mutate, they generally weaken, and the equity market is anticipating that corporate revenues and earnings will not be impaired by government-imposed lockdowns.

More

November 2021 Market Update

The better-than-expected third-quarter corporate earnings reports were evidence of a broad-based economic recovery causing investor psychology to improve and funds to flow from bonds into stocks. This has since reversed as the uncertainty of the spread and severity of COVID mutation Omicron remains unknown. The concern is that the supply chain of parts and goods produced in emerging markets may slow and deter global economic growth.

More

October 2021 Investment Update

After declining in September, the equity market is now celebrating the economic recovery from the COVID virus and solid growth in U.S. corporate earnings. The S&P 500 Index is now up 22% for the year and is poised to move higher as economic growth is only hindered by distribution bottlenecks in imported and manufactured goods.

More

Third Quarter Ups and Downs

The S&P 500 Index is consolidating as Washington policymakers postpone important decisions on the budget ceiling and the infrastructure bills. The S&P 500 Index has grown this year as earnings and growth have supported valuations, but now, as fiscal and monetary policies change, we are seeing investor concerns. With fiscal policy, there are many supportive benefits of spending $500 billion on actual bridge and road infrastructure. However, the massive $3.5-trillion “human” infrastructure package is concerning due to higher taxes and escalating inflation. This plan is likely to be debated and downsized before passage – if at all.

More

Market Update for Third Quarter 2021

The S&P 500 Index is consolidating as Washington policymakers postpone important decisions on the budget ceiling and the infrastructure bills. The S&P 500 Index has grown this year as earnings and growth have supported valuations, but now, as fiscal and monetary policies change, we are seeing investor concerns.

More

Market Update for Third Quarter 2021

The S&P 500 Index is consolidating as Washington policymakers postpone important decisions on the budget ceiling and the infrastructure bills. The S&P 500 Index has grown this year as earnings and growth have supported valuations, but now, as fiscal and monetary policies change, we are seeing investor concerns. With fiscal policy, there are many supportive benefits of spending $500 billion on actual bridge and road infrastructure. However, the massive $3.5-trillion “human” infrastructure package is concerning due to higher taxes and escalating inflation. This plan is likely to be debated and downsized before passage – if at all.

More

Pent-up Demand Fuels Economy

Economic indicators are proving that consumers and businesses are fueling the economy with pent-up demand on spending. Consumers are reacting to the vaccinations with robust spending on vacations, furniture, automobiles and homes, while businesses are trying to ramp up production and services to meet the need.

More

The best-performing sectors were energy, financial, healthcare, and materials.

The S&P 500 Index gained 8.1% for the second quarter and 14.4% year-to-date despite concerns over Federal Reserve policy, fiscal spending and the spreading delta variant of COVID. Most investors see an improving economy with continued low interest rates being positive for corporate earnings.

More

First quarter corporate earnings exceed expectations

The S&P 500 index was up slightly in the month of May due to growing investor confidence in higher 2021 corporate revenues and earnings. With the receding COVID pandemic, consumers and businesses are emerging from social-distancing protocols and accelerating their spending. This strong growth in demand for goods has led to inventory shortages in many cases. Temporary delivery delays for raw materials and components are constraining global growth. Employment is expanding, however, which means goods manufacturing should improve and service industries should gain momentum.

More

Fed Remains Resolute in Bond Purchases and Yields

More

Federal Spending Strengthens U.S. Dollar

The S&P 500 Index grew 5.8% in the first quarter in response to the massive fiscal stimulus and the anticipation of a significant economic rebound. The recent passage of the $1.9 trillion federal stimulus package added to the previous five major stimulus bills totaling over $5.2 trillion. Lawmakers as well as the Federal Reserve have responded dramatically to the COVID pandemic flooding the market with liquidity and the markets responded positively. The COVID-relief money flooding into depository institutions is being used for consumption and investment and helping corporate earnings rebound quickly.

More