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Updated U.S. Persistence Scorecard

Winning is Hard, Staying a Winner is Even Harder

S&P Dow Jones Indices has published their updated U.S. Persistence Scorecard. A mere 2.2% of actively managed U.S. domestic equity funds in the top..

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 top chart shows that over the last 15 years the stock market was the place to be, bottom chart shows real estate performed better over 30 years

Real Estate vs. Stock Market

Past performance is no predictor of future success, but it is interesting to compare the past performance of different investments. These charts show..

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chart shows the spread between best and worst performing sectors

Best vs. Worst

Some investment managers promote a strategy called “Sector Rotation” where they try to time the market by trading between the 11 major sectors of the..

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chart shows the level of dividends for all the stocks in the S&P 500

Sale and Dividends

There are two ways to make money in stocks:

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Chart shows risk of large single stock holdings

100% of the Time

I think about this chart often during discussions with clients on having too much exposure to single stocks.

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chart shows that In the past, an average house in the U.S. cost five times the yearly household income (aka our labor). As of November 2021, that ratio was 7.5 times

Real Estate Prices vs. Income

Real estate is unique since humans need a physical place to live and work. Economics says the price of those physical places is constrained by the..

Read More

chart shows that Austria issued a 100-year bond with a duration of 66 years at a price of $98 and an interest rate of 0.88%.

Bond Length Matters

Duration describes the time it takes for a bond holder to get all their money back and/or the change in price for each 1% change in the interest rate.

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chart shows the percentage of funds that underperformed the S&P 500 in the last 12 years.

S&P 500 Wins Again

This chart from an article in today’s Wall Street Journal shows the percentage of funds that underperformed the S&P 500 in the last 12 years. Again,..

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chart shows car dealer profits over the years

Car Dealer Profits

I am reminded of this chart every time I drive by a car lot. Before the pandemic, financing and insurance profits made up 70% of the dealer’s..

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Chart shows that over the last 15 years, if you missed the top 10 best days of market gains, your return would have gone from 10.66% to only 5.05%.

Stay Invested

Below is a great chart from Putnam, which shows that over the last 15 years, if you missed the top 10 best days of market gains, your return would..

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Vanguard vs. iShares by BlackRock

Since we use both Vanguard and iShares by BlackRock Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) extensively, one of my pleasures over the last few years has been..

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Chart indicates Year to Date of $100 Invested

The Market Response after Eight Days of Conflict

It’s hard to do commentary when in the morning, the markets are down, and by lunch they are level, and by the close they might be up, and vice versa.

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chart shows the levels in cash spiked during COVID and has not returned

Too Much Cash

In a compelling article by BlackRock, they make an argument that even though we are facing higher than normal inflation and turmoil, that fear is..

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Today's Market Notes - Russian Edition

As with all things, patience is the name of the game in the long run. Below are three notes about today.

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Rising and Falling Rates in Relation to Real Estate Prices

“A 1% decline in real interest rates should lead to a spike in home prices in certain cities in the U.S. ranging from 19% to 33%.” -Bloomberg (Feb...

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Samuel A. Kiburz, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

Samuel serves as Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer for the Crews family of banks. He manages the individual investment holdings of his clients, including individuals, families, foundations, and institutions throughout the State of Florida. Samuel has been involved in banking since 1996 and has more than 20 years experience working in wealth management.

Investments are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the bank, are not FDIC insured, not insured by any federal government agency, and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal.

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Recent Posts

Winning is Hard, Staying a Winner is Even Harder

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices has published their updated U.S. Persistence Scorecard. A mere 2.2% of actively managed U.S. domestic equity funds in the top quartile for 12 months performance at the end of 2019 stayed ahead of three-quarters of their peers when measured two years later.

More

Real Estate vs. Stock Market

Past performance is no predictor of future success, but it is interesting to compare the past performance of different investments.

These charts show the value of $100 invested in real estate (red) and the stock market (blue.)

The chart above shows that over the last 15 years, the stock market was the place to be.

More

Best vs. Worst

Some investment managers promote a strategy called “Sector Rotation” where they try to time the market by trading between the 11 major sectors of the economy. The gains can be tempting, but the risk is high. For instance, if you owned all energy stocks, you would be up +40% year to date, but if you thought communications was the place to be, you would be down -20%. This is a possible difference of 60% in your returns. According to the chart, which includes more sub sectors, the difference is the highest since 2000.

More

Sale and Dividends

There are two ways to make money in stocks:

More

100% of the Time

I think about this chart often during discussions with clients on having too much exposure to single stocks.

More

Real Estate Prices vs. Income

Real estate is unique since humans need a physical place to live and work. Economics says the price of those physical places is constrained by the cost of the physical labor to build them.

More

Bond Length Matters

Duration describes the time it takes for a bond holder to get all their money back and/or the change in price for each 1% change in the interest rate.

More

S&P 500 Wins Again

This chart from an article in today’s Wall Street Journal shows the percentage of funds that underperformed the S&P 500 in the last 12 years. Again, passive indexes beat 85% of the active managers last year, and the majority have done so for 12 consecutive years. This is one of the reasons why we champion passive index funds. 

More

Car Dealer Profits

I am reminded of this chart every time I drive by a car lot. Before the pandemic, financing and insurance profits made up 70% of the dealer’s profits. Now, due to price appreciation of their inventory, that percentage has changed. However, the dollar profits from financing and insurance continue to increase. Car dealers have become more like finance and insurance companies.

More

Stay Invested

Below is a great chart from Putnam, which shows that over the last 15 years, if you missed the top 10 best days of market gains, your return would have gone from 10.66% to only 5.05%.

More

Vanguard vs. iShares by BlackRock

Since we use both Vanguard and iShares by BlackRock Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) extensively, one of my pleasures over the last few years has been seeing each company try to outdo the other by lowering costs. As they continue to lower costs, they gather more and more investments. As referenced in a recent Bloomberg article, together they account for 64% of the ETF market as Vanguard is getting close to the size of BlackRock.

More

The Market Response after Eight Days of Conflict

It’s hard to do commentary when in the morning, the markets are down, and by lunch they are level, and by the close they might be up, and vice versa.

More

Too Much Cash

In a compelling article by BlackRock, they make an argument that even though we are facing higher than normal inflation and turmoil, that fear is driving investors to hold too much cash.

More

Today's Market Notes - Russian Edition

As with all things, patience is the name of the game in the long run. Below are three notes about today.

More

Rising and Falling Rates in Relation to Real Estate Prices

“A 1% decline in real interest rates should lead to a spike in home prices in certain cities in the U.S. ranging from 19% to 33%.” -Bloomberg (Feb. 23, 2022)

More